1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	341583	Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin	Current	83	7.97	5.61	2.00
			Estimated	900	7.26	6.09	2.43

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
EXIT The Game: The Return to the Abandoned Cabin is a sequel to Exit: The Game â The Abandoned Cabin with lots of new puzzles and tools. One ordinary morning, a police detective rings your doorbell. He asks you to come with him — to a cabin in the woods. You instantly know it’s the same cabin in which the sinister riddle master Dr. Arthur Funbeq locked you up a few years ago. Apparently, he has just escaped from prison. Now you’re headed back to the infamous cabin where it all began to help bring Funbeq down. The adventure begins … again! A celebration of 5 years since the initial Exit game, The Abandoned Cabin! Difficulty Level 3 / 5 EXIT: The Game is a series of escape room games for the home. Players must solve riddles and puzzles and crack codes to escape from an imaginary room or environment. … One-time use: Each game can only be played once, because you must mark up, fold, and tear the game materials to crack the codes.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/341583

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	341583	Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin	1.00	5.61	7.97	2.43	83
1	2019	283934	Exit: The Game – Theft on the Mississippi	1.00	6.14	7.18	2.75	1,069
2	2018	226520	Exit: The Game – The Sinister Mansion	1.00	6.51	7.37	2.55	2,074
3	2019	269967	EXIT: Das Spiel – Die Känguru-Eskapaden	1.00	5.82	7.01	2.45	466
4	2018	244918	Exit: The Game – The Mysterious Museum	1.00	6.40	7.19	2.15	2,038
5	2019	269968	Exit: The Game – The Haunted Roller Coaster	0.99	6.22	7.20	2.05	1,335
6	2017	226518	Exit: The Game – The Sunken Treasure	0.99	6.47	7.08	1.85	2,864
7	2017	226519	Exit: The Game – The House of Riddles	0.99	6.06	6.89	1.68	1,231
8	2017	234093	Rob 'n Run	0.98	5.60	6.80	2.75	179
9	2020	307369	Instacrime: Munford	0.97	5.52	5.91	2.00	101
10	2013	113997	Tajemnicze Domostwo	0.94	6.71	7.15	1.86	5,082
11	2020	323882	Dark Story	0.88	5.52	6.36	3.00	48
12	2019	281514	Escape from the Asylum	0.88	5.62	6.36	2.57	344
13	2019	275100	The Aquicorn Cove Board Game	0.86	5.54	6.20	2.17	118
14	2019	236801	Wayward	0.86	5.53	6.75	2.67	61
15	2020	322148	Pocket Detective: Die Bombe tickt	0.86	5.53	6.13	2.00	88
16	2020	296345	Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars	0.85	6.28	8.51	2.42	657
17	2020	314395	Pocket Detective №2	0.85	5.61	6.89	2.00	158
18	2020	295949	Adventure Games: The Grand Hotel Abaddon	0.85	5.74	7.55	1.50	237
19	2017	218314	3 Secrets	0.85	5.60	6.10	1.38	379
20	2008	69544	Ik Hou van Holland Spel	0.85	5.46	4.14	1.00	48
21	2016	195253	Naruto Shippuden: The Board Game	0.84	5.53	6.35	2.29	113
22	2016	198824	Guédelon: Le Jeu	0.84	5.52	7.05	2.33	31
23	1987	3023	VCR 221B Baker Street	0.84	5.50	5.95		30
24	2019	296419	Sherlock Holmes: Baker Street Irregulars	0.84	5.55	6.77	1.67	83
25	2019	269756	3 Secrets: Crime Time	0.84	5.52	6.25	1.00	62

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	341583	Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin	5.61	1.00	5.61	7.97	2.43	83
1	2018	226520	Exit: The Game – The Sinister Mansion	6.50	1.00	6.51	7.37	2.55	2,074
2	2017	226518	Exit: The Game – The Sunken Treasure	6.42	0.99	6.47	7.08	1.85	2,864
3	2018	244918	Exit: The Game – The Mysterious Museum	6.38	1.00	6.40	7.19	2.15	2,038
4	2013	113997	Tajemnicze Domostwo	6.28	0.94	6.71	7.15	1.86	5,082
5	2019	269968	Exit: The Game – The Haunted Roller Coaster	6.19	0.99	6.22	7.20	2.05	1,335
6	2019	283934	Exit: The Game – Theft on the Mississippi	6.13	1.00	6.14	7.18	2.75	1,069
7	2017	226519	Exit: The Game – The House of Riddles	6.01	0.99	6.06	6.89	1.68	1,231
8	2019	269967	EXIT: Das Spiel – Die Känguru-Eskapaden	5.81	1.00	5.82	7.01	2.45	466
9	2017	234093	Rob 'n Run	5.52	0.98	5.60	6.80	2.75	179
10	2020	296345	Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars	5.37	0.85	6.28	8.51	2.42	657
11	2020	307369	Instacrime: Munford	5.35	0.97	5.52	5.91	2.00	101
12	2020	300300	Chronicles of Crime: 1400	5.19	0.77	6.71	7.88	2.12	2,310
13	2017	223931	Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park	5.10	0.80	6.35	7.90	2.38	991
14	2016	203416	Exit: The Game – The Pharaoh's Tomb	4.96	0.73	6.82	7.21	2.80	5,967
15	2018	255675	Exit: The Game – The Catacombs of Horror	4.93	0.78	6.36	7.39	2.67	1,463
16	2019	281514	Escape from the Asylum	4.93	0.88	5.62	6.36	2.57	344
17	2020	295949	Adventure Games: The Grand Hotel Abaddon	4.89	0.85	5.74	7.55	1.50	237
18	2017	145601	Deadline	4.88	0.83	5.86	6.71	2.00	734
19	2020	323882	Dark Story	4.86	0.88	5.52	6.36	3.00	48
20	2016	204836	Escape Room: The Game	4.83	0.74	6.51	7.00	2.28	3,708
21	2019	268620	Similo	4.83	0.76	6.33	6.86	1.05	2,818
22	2016	193737	Star Trek Panic	4.80	0.77	6.22	7.00	2.13	1,748
23	2020	314395	Pocket Detective №2	4.78	0.85	5.61	6.89	2.00	158
24	2017	218314	3 Secrets	4.76	0.85	5.60	6.10	1.38	379
25	2019	275100	The Aquicorn Cove Board Game	4.75	0.86	5.54	6.20	2.17	118

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	341583	Exit: The Game – The Return to the Abandoned Cabin	KOSMOS	Inka Brand		Deduction	Series: Exit – The Game	Cooperative Game
				Markus Brand		Murder/Mystery		Deduction

Individual Game Analysis